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Grain & Oilseed Flows Detected in Real-Time Data

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Brazil Under the Influence of IMO 2020

Download our latest IMO 2020 white paper to learn about shifting flows in Brazil ahead of the January regulation.

James Caldwell, Product Manager – Container Shipping & Tankers


Khalifa Port – Behind Its Container Volumes Surge 11/12/2019 | By James Caldwell

Khalifa Port has seen its volumes jump on the back of concession agreements with COSCO Shipping Ports and Mediterranean Shipping Company. This growth will continue and undoubtedly grow stronger when COSCO’s and MSC’s terminals open properly for business at the port. Growth in China’s Belt and Road strategy, along with Khalifa owner Abu Dhabi Ports’ […]

Asia-to-ECSA Trade Booms as China Seeks Protection From US Trade War 10/15/2019 | By James Caldwell

The Asia to East Coast South America (ECSA) trade is surging – and a major factor is a greater focus by China on boosting its business with this continent. Drivers for this include moves by China to bolster its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in ECSA, an upsurge in its demand for Brazilian agricultural products […]

American Port Deliveries Move North 08/29/2019 | By James Caldwell

West Coast Canadian ports are winning market share of US cargo to and from Asia – driven by congestion and longer dwell times in southern Californian ports, as well as the competitive costs of Canadian terminals and their intermodal operators. Growth at Vancouver and Prince Rupert ports within US imports and exports from Asia is […]

US-China Trade War Leads to Rise in Illegal Trade 07/25/2019 | By James Caldwell

The surge in Vietnamese exports to the United States as shippers seek to escape the effects of the US-China trade war appears to include illegal rerouting of goods by some Chinese exporters. This cottage industry came to light in June when Vietnam accused Chinese firms of deploying illegal ‘Made in Vietnam’ labels to sidestep US […]

China and US tariffs lead to South East Asia trade surge 06/24/2019 | By James Caldwell

The impact of US and China tariffs has led to a shift in manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia – and as the trade war rages on, this movement is likely to become more pronounced. According to the US Census Bureau, US tariffs have been imposed on US$250 billion of Chinese goods by the end […]

Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research


An African Swine Fever Bottom 10/04/2019 | By Matt Smith

Have we hit bottom? That’s the question many in the global oilseed trade are asking themselves as we inch closer to the end of a tumultuous 2019. In a January 29th blog post, Preparing for the Worst, we suggested early-year offtake trends pointed toward an 82.90 million tonne yearly import figure, while the USDA forecast […]

ClipperClip: Iranian Woes and Chinese Flows 09/12/2019 | By Matt Smith

I was out on CNBC Asia last night discussing the latest developments relating to Iran, crude flows into China, and the likely ongoing over-compliance of Saudi Arabia in terms of OPEC production cuts. The chart below highlights what I was discussing in the interview – how US flows are heading elsewhere in Asia as US […]

China Might Need The U.S. This Time 08/06/2019 | By Matt Smith

It was reported on Monday evening from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that Chinese companies have stopped purchasing U.S. agricultural products in response to President Trump announcing that he intends to place a 10 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion of goods starting on September 1st.  The Ministry of Commerce also said they would […]

Oilseed Weekly: US Loadings Bounce as ASF Spreads 07/26/2019 | By Matt Smith

Global oilseed loadings saw a solid rebound last week as China continues to pull in supplies originating in the US, but for the month, shipments are still down 14 percent from last year.

US Corn Export Outlook 07/24/2019 | By Matt Smith

With six weeks left in the 2018-19 marketing year, US corn exports are struggling to find their footing as South American loadouts take center stage. US loading marketing year-to-date have totaled 43.60 million tonnes with the USDA now forecasting 2018-19 export demand at 53.34mn tonnes. The US will need to ship 1.62mn tonnes per week […]

Amir Richani, Geopolitical Analyst


Brazil and Argentina: Winning on IMO 2020 11/12/2019 | By Amir Richani

We noted recently that Mexico and Venezuela will lose out once the marine fuel sulfur cap goes into force in January. Next we turn our focus to Argentina and Brazil, which can expect to reap the rewards of the IMO’s spec change. Beginning in January, the sulfur cap for marine fuels will change from 3.5 […]

Mexico and Venezuela: Losing on IMO 2020. 11/01/2019 | By Amir Richani

The implementation of the IMO sulfur cap on marine fuels will change Latin American flows because of the impact on demand and prices for heavy-sour grades of crude oil. Many Latin American suppliers produce the heavy-sour crude good for production of high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and simple refiners without the capacity to trim HSFO […]

Venezuela Looks to Europe and Beyond to Replace US Product Imports 10/25/2019 | By Amir Richani

Before the Trump administration began its crackdown on Caracas, the United States was the largest supplier of refined products to Venezuela. With strict sanctions in place, Venezuela has now turned to the European market, and notably Russia, in order to maintain a relatively steady level of imports of gasoline and middle distillates. US sanctions imposed […]

Brazilian Crude Extends Its Global Reach Ahead of IMO 2020 09/13/2019 | By Amir Richani

A particular grade of heavy-sweet crude oil produced by Brazil is in high demand thanks to the International Maritime Organization’s upcoming sulfur cap. The new regulation goes into effect on January 1 and will limit the permissible sulfur content of marine fuels to 0.5 percent, down from its current level of 3.5 percent. As a […]

GeopoliticOIL: Back to the Flows 07/24/2019 | By Amir Richani

Brazil’s oil exports so far this month are amongst the strongest on our record, averaging some 1.17mn bpd. At 283,000 bpd so far in July, US imports of Brazilian oil are close to record highs for a third consecutive month.

Andrew Couper, Oil Markets Analyst


Group II Base Oil Exporters Wait on European Tariff Decision 09/23/2019 | By Andrew Couper

Importers of Group II base oil into Europe may have to start paying a tariff if the current waiver is not extended beyond December. European production, meanwhile, could influence trans-Atlantic flows. A working group within the European Commission met earlier this month to discuss whether to extend a tariff waiver, which currently allows Group II […]

US Base Oil Exports Shrug Off Falling European Car Sales 08/13/2019 | By Andrew Couper

Exxon Mobil’s Group II base oils refinery opening in Rotterdam and declining car sales in Europe has had little impact on US flows of base oil volumes into Northwest Europe during the first half of this year. The first six months of 2019 saw 358,982 tons of base oils arrive into Northwest Europe from the […]

Hapag-Lloyd Hedging its Bets for IMO 2020 08/07/2019 | By Andrew Couper

Global container line Hapag-Lloyd will comply with the upcoming 0.5%S cap through a combination of compliant fuels, employing scrubbers and by using liquefied natural gas. The container line’s primary method of compliance with the International Maritime Organization’s sulfur cap will be 0.5 percent low sulfur fuels, while scrubbers and LNG will be run on a […]

USAC Balance Report: Ethanol Gain Causes Gasoline Pain 07/26/2019 | By Andrew Couper

The EIA on Wednesday reported US East Coast gasoline stocks of 59.9 million barrels, a 409,000 bbl build over the past week, as firmer production and seasonally-strong imports were more than enough to offset summer driving demand.

Beyond 2020: In 2020 – Istanbul Bunker Supplies Without 0.5%S Fuel Oil 06/26/2019 | By Andrew Couper

With less than six months to go before the upcoming IMO 2020 sulfur cap deadline, Istanbul bunker suppliers are still unable to offer 0.5 percent bunker product to customers.

Rebecca Salsbury, Oil Market Analyst


Beyond 2020: Pyrolysis Fuel Oil Exports From Taiwan’s Formosa Gaining Popularity 06/26/2019 | By Rebecca Salsbury

As the market sped up preparations for 0.5%S bunker fuel ahead of the IMO sulfur cap, Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) of Taiwan has started to see demand for its pyrolysis fuel oil (PFO) export.

Beyond 2020 – In the Markets: Eramet Awards Shell One-Year Fuel Oil Supply Contract 06/26/2019 | By Rebecca Salsbury

Following a tender, Paris-based Eramet awarded Shell International Eastern Trading Company a one-year contract to supply 0.7%S and 2%S fuel oil to its subsidiary, New Caledonian nickel producer Société Le Nickel (SLN) starting September 1.

Beyond 2020: In the Markets – The Great Eastern Shipping Company of India to Start Scheduled Fuel Tank Cleaning 06/26/2019 | By Rebecca Salsbury

Starting in June, The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited, based in Mumbai, India, scheduled fuel tank cleanings for vessels that have not installed scrubbers to ensure safe and cost-efficient fuel switchover ahead of the IMO sulfur cap.

Beyond 2020: In the Markets – Frontera Energy to Market Two Grades of Colombian Vasconia Crude in 2020 06/26/2019 | By Rebecca Salsbury

Looking for new opportunities for Colombian medium-sour crude oil post 2020, Frontera Energy plans to segregate its current Vasconia stream into sweet and sour grades for two niche markets.

FOFT: Pakistan State Oil Importing HSFO for Seasonal Needs 05/01/2019 | By Rebecca Salsbury

State-owned Pakistan State Oil (PSO) returned to the international market for its supply of high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) as demand for fuel oil in power generation is expected to exceed refinery production and inventory during the country’s peak summer season.

Josh Lowell, Senior Energy Analyst


Updated 2020 Bunker Forecast 10/02/2019 | By Josh Lowell

Back in March, ClipperData unveiled its first forecast for marine fuel demand between 2020 and 2025. In recent weeks, we have updated our projection ahead of the IMO’s forthcoming 0.5 percent sulfur cap. In our initial projection, we forecasted that shipowners in 2020 would retreat from high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and move to marine […]

Middle Distillates Weekly 08/23/2019 | By Josh Lowell

West African suppliers may be stocking up on IMO-complaint fuels ahead of the upcoming bunker spec change.

Market Signals Incentive to Shut FCCs Ahead of IMO 2020 07/22/2019 | By Josh Lowell

Uncertainty continues to surround the forthcoming IMO 2020 sulfur cap, even with a mere five and a half months to go before the January 1, 2020, start of the regulation. What will the makeup of marine fuel demand be after the sulfur cap goes into effect? Will compatibility concerns limit market appeal for low sulfur […]

Beyond 2020: In the Markets – Karadeniz Powership Again Weighing Transition to Natural Gas 06/26/2019 | By Josh Lowell

Ghana’s National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) is weighing a change in the fuel diet of the 480 megawatt MV Osman Khan powership.

Beyond 2020: ClipperView 2H 2019 – Preparing for IMO 2020 06/26/2019 | By Josh Lowell

In June, ClipperData presented its latest six-month proprietary outlook at a series of events around the world, called ClipperView. This issue’s “In Perspective” will discuss four key themes that were presented, refreshed with the latest available data.

Samantha Zhang, Senior Market Data Analyst


US Gasoline Import Week: Blendstock Bounce 07/19/2019 | By Samantha Zhang

At 780,000 barrels per day, total imports of gasoline and blending components into the US East Coast are down by about 40,000 barrels per day from previous week, and a further 157,000 bpd lower if we only count volume reported to Customs.

US Gasoline Import Week: Coming Elsewhere 06/21/2019 | By Samantha Zhang

Total imports of gasoline and components into the US East Coast for the week ending June 21 were up by 71,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week at 736,000 bpd, and 75,000 bpd higher than the five-year average for this time of year.

US Import Week – Gasoline: Going North 06/14/2019 | By Samantha Zhang

Total imports of gasoline and components into the US East Coast for the week ending June 14 came in at 651,000 barrels per day, up by 109,000 bpd compared to the previous week. Still, imports are 72,000 bpd lower than the five-year average for this time of year.

U.S. Import Week: Start of Summer Strength 05/17/2019 | By Samantha Zhang

Billed deliveries into the US Atlantic Coast came in at 853,000 barrels per day for the week ending May 17. Total arrivals – including billed and unbilled volume – reached a nine-month high at 943,000 bpd, 252,000 bpd higher than the five-year average for this time of the year.

U.S. Import Week: Strength Continued 05/10/2019 | By Samantha Zhang

Billed imports of gasoline and blending components into the US East Coast came in at 766,000 barrels per day for the week ending May 10. But our calculation of 856,000 bpd in total arrivals is 90,000 bpd higher than the volume reported to Customs and 150,000 bpd higher than the five-year average for this time […]

Kaleem Asghar, Director, LNG Analytics


October Review of Global LNG Flows 11/12/2019 | By Kaleem Asghar

Global exports of liquefied natural gas in October totaled approximately 30.8 million tons on board 507 vessels, considerably higher than October 2018’s pace of 27.6 million tons. Approximately 28.1 million tons arrived on 463 vessels at import terminals in October, compared to 26.5 million tons in September 2018. China did not receive any US LNG […]

LNG South Asia Market Analysis 10/22/2019 | By Kaleem Asghar

India imported 1.87 million tons of LNG in September, with 32 vessels arriving at different terminals across the country. Petronet procured 11 vessels, while there were seven for Gail, six for GSPC, three for Reliance, two for IOC and one each for Essar Steel, Torrent Power and BPCL. In terms of suppliers, the Middle East […]

LNG Market Analysis for September 10/03/2019 | By Kaleem Asghar

Global exports of liquefied natural gas in September totaled approximately 29.6 million tons on board 480 vessels, considerably higher than September 2018’s pace of 27.6 million tons. Approximately 28.6 million tons arrived on 473 vessels at import terminals in September, compared to 30.7 million tons in September 2018. China did not receive any US LNG […]

LNG Market Analysis for July 09/03/2019 | By Kaleem Asghar

Global exports of liquefied natural gas in July totaled approximately 30.7 million tons on board 507 vessels, considerably higher than July 2018’s pace of 26.7 million tons. Approximately 30.5 million tons arrived on 514 vessels at import terminals in July, compared to 26.5 million tons in July 2018.  China has only received two cargoes from […]

LNG Market Analysis for June 08/01/2019 | By Kaleem Asghar

LNG Market Analysis Global export loadings of liquefied natural gas in June totaled approximately 30.9 million tons on board 487 vessels, considerably higher than June 2018’s pace of 25.2 million tons. Approximately 30.9 million tons arrived on 490 vessels at import terminals in June, compared to 25.6 million tons in June 2018. Northeast Asia took […]

Noam Raydan, Geopolitical Analyst


Algeria Feeling the Brunt of US Shale 11/14/2019 | By Noam Raydan

Algeria delivers the majority of its crude and condensate to the European market. Deliveries to Northwest Europe, Algeria’s top customer, have been running at an average of 314,000 barrels per day through the first 10 months of 2019, some 15 percent higher than over the same period last year. Although France and the United Kingdom […]

Asia, Europe Feel Benefit of Strong Libyan Crude Flows 11/08/2019 | By Noam Raydan

Libya’s crude exports have remained strong over the past three months even though fighting between rival authorities makes for a fragile security situation in the OPEC producer. Total Libyan oil exports hit a three-month high in October, topping 1 million barrels per day as Asian buyers took advantage of relatively cheaper Brent-based pricing. The attacks […]

Exit From OPEC Boosts Qatari Oil Exports 10/31/2019 | By Noam Raydan

Qatar’s oil and condensate exports are at a three-year high, having climbed consistently in 2019 after its December decision to leave OPEC. Doha’s decision to quit the oil cartel at the start of 2019 has meant that its oil production is no longer constrained by the OPEC+ production cut deal, and subsequently its crude and […]

IMO Impact Seen in UAE’s Middle Distillate Exports 10/28/2019 | By Noam Raydan

As the shipping industry prepares to comply with the IMO 2020 sulfur cap, middle distillate exports from the United Arab Emirates are running at a record high so far in October. The rise is particularly evident in gasoil exports, which are seen close to 400,000 bpd – the highest we have since March. While jet […]

Indian Crude Imports Hitting High for the Year 10/22/2019 | By Noam Raydan

India’s crude imports so far in October are above 5 million barrels per day – their highest monthly pace so far this year and up over 30 percent versus last month. The increase is driven by oil flows from Arab countries other than Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which are normally seen as the top suppliers. […]

Dan Graeber, Chief Editor


The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report 11/11/2019 | By Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: ORANGE RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report 11/04/2019 | By Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: ORANGE RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report 10/28/2019 | By Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: ORANGE RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report 10/21/2019 | By Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Yellow RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]

The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report 10/14/2019 | By Dan Graeber

Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Yellow RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]

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Hard Data

In the world of waterborne energy trading, it’s all about the hard data


These days just about anyone can track a tanker on a map. You can do that for free.

Some of us go further, and apply state-of-the-art predictive algorithms to deduce the tanker’s destination and ETA. And depending on the size of the tanker and where it loaded you can guess at the grade of the cargo.

But that’s all based on what is known in the business as soft data. It’s based on interpretation and conjecture. And let’s face it, no matter how ingenious your algorithms may be, their output is going to suffer if you’re feeding them ambiguities and contradictions.


The solution is to apply a hard-data overlay to your soft-data baseline. Hard data comes from the people who load or discharge the tanker, or are otherwise responsible for the molecules onboard. There is no guesswork involved. Hard data is based on hard facts.

In the US, ClipperData receives bills of lading from the US Customs and Border Protection agency in near real-time. We have been receiving export bills since 2014, and import bills going all the way back to 2009. So if a tanker touches US shores, ClipperData can tell you the exact grades and quantities that make up that cargo. Outside the US, ClipperData relies on agent reports and local sources to build our hard-data overlay.


Granularity

In 2018, our algorithms matched hard-data sources to 45 percent of refined products movements and more than 50 percent of crude oil movements worldwide. In some particularly difficult-to-disentangle regions, our hard-data source match rates are above 90 percent.

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Wondering if that clean cargo from ARA is gasoline or gasoil? If that Iraqi crude cargo is Basrah Heavy or Basrah Light?
Only ClipperData can tell you that.

In 2018 the Russian port of Ust-Luga loaded cargoes of gasoil, jet fuel, naphtha, and gasoline, but one of those grades accounted for 82% of total volume.
Only ClipperData can tell you which one.

In 2018 India decreased its year-on-year imports of one Basrah grade by a few percent, but increased imports of the other grade by over 40%.
Only ClipperData can tell you which is which.

In early 2018 the VLCC Karan loaded offshore Galveston via ship-to-ship transfer from four Aframaxes. If you were relying on soft data, all you knew was that the originating tankers loaded twice from Corpus Christi, once from Beaumont, and once from Freeport. So that’s about 1m bbls of Eagle Ford, 500k bbls of US crude, and 500k bbls of either US or Canadian crude (the Freeport loading was from the Seaway Terminal, which loads Canadian crude as well as US crude).

Thanks to its hard-data sources, ClipperData knew that part of the Eagle Ford loading was actually condensate, and that the rest of the barrels were a combination of Bakken and DJ Common – no Canadian barrels there. We also knew the exact quantities, and the shippers who had combined to build the cargo: Mercuria, Total, Statoil (now Equinor), and Trafigura.

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Trusted by the Top Ten

ClipperData invented this space – previously handled by in-house teams of analysts at the houses that trade energy. With a five-year head start on our competitors, we have spent more time testing, refining and perfecting our craft.

We took a bet on the value of hard data in an ever-complex, ever-changing trading environment, and we locked up the best-of-breed providers of that insight. We use that hard-data overlay every day, to teach our models, to re-examine history, and to override standard assumptions.

All oil supermajors and super merchant traders rely on ClipperData

It’s no coincidence that you don’t see these heavy hitters jumping at the latest new whiz-bang screen being offered at half-price in the marketplace. They know what it takes to do the hard yards on the hard data and grind out results that correlate with reality.  And they know it can’t be done for half the price.

So if you want to see what the big guys are seeing, you need to look at Clipper. Because everything else is just a shiny new toy.

Maps

ClipperData’s best-in-class cargo map tracks real-time vessel movements across the globe.

Users can view a vessel’s status, type and class, AIS position details, and learn its likely destination and ETA. ClipperData customers can also view detailed cargo data, including hard-data breakdowns of grade and volume.

New features include real-time and historical weather patterns, zone entry and exit alerts, emission control areas, and animated voyage replays.

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