Recent ClipperData Analyst Publications & Reports
Hard Data
In the world of waterborne energy trading, it’s all about the hard data
These days just about anyone can track a tanker on a map. You can do that for free.
Some of us go further, and apply state-of-the-art predictive algorithms to deduce the tanker’s destination and ETA. And depending on the size of the tanker and where it loaded you can guess at the grade of the cargo.
But that’s all based on what is known in the business as soft data. It’s based on interpretation and conjecture. And let’s face it, no matter how ingenious your algorithms may be, their output is going to suffer if you’re feeding them ambiguities and contradictions.
The solution is to apply a hard-data overlay to your soft-data baseline. Hard data comes from the people who load or discharge the tanker, or are otherwise responsible for the molecules onboard. There is no guesswork involved. Hard data is based on hard facts.
In the US, ClipperData receives bills of lading from the US Customs and Border Protection agency in near real-time. We have been receiving export bills since 2014, and import bills going all the way back to 2009. So if a tanker touches US shores, ClipperData can tell you the exact grades and quantities that make up that cargo. Outside the US, ClipperData relies on agent reports and local sources to build our hard-data overlay.
Granularity
In 2018, our algorithms matched hard-data sources to 45 percent of refined products movements and more than 50 percent of crude oil movements worldwide. In some particularly difficult-to-disentangle regions, our hard-data source match rates are above 90 percent.
Wondering if that clean cargo from ARA is gasoline or gasoil? If that Iraqi crude cargo is Basrah Heavy or Basrah Light?
Only ClipperData can tell you that.
In 2018 the Russian port of Ust-Luga loaded cargoes of gasoil, jet fuel, naphtha, and gasoline, but one of those grades accounted for 82% of total volume.
Only ClipperData can tell you which one.
In 2018 India decreased its year-on-year imports of one Basrah grade by a few percent, but increased imports of the other grade by over 40%.
Only ClipperData can tell you which is which.
In early 2018 the VLCC Karan loaded offshore Galveston via ship-to-ship transfer from four Aframaxes. If you were relying on soft data, all you knew was that the originating tankers loaded twice from Corpus Christi, once from Beaumont, and once from Freeport. So that’s about 1m bbls of Eagle Ford, 500k bbls of US crude, and 500k bbls of either US or Canadian crude (the Freeport loading was from the Seaway Terminal, which loads Canadian crude as well as US crude).
Thanks to its hard-data sources, ClipperData knew that part of the Eagle Ford loading was actually condensate, and that the rest of the barrels were a combination of Bakken and DJ Common – no Canadian barrels there. We also knew the exact quantities, and the shippers who had combined to build the cargo: Mercuria, Total, Statoil (now Equinor), and Trafigura.
Trusted by the Top Ten
ClipperData invented this space – previously handled by in-house teams of analysts at the houses that trade energy. With a five-year head start on our competitors, we have spent more time testing, refining and perfecting our craft.
We took a bet on the value of hard data in an ever-complex, ever-changing trading environment, and we locked up the best-of-breed providers of that insight. We use that hard-data overlay every day, to teach our models, to re-examine history, and to override standard assumptions.
All oil supermajors and super merchant traders rely on ClipperData
It’s no coincidence that you don’t see these heavy hitters jumping at the latest new whiz-bang screen being offered at half-price in the marketplace. They know what it takes to do the hard yards on the hard data and grind out results that correlate with reality. And they know it can’t be done for half the price.
So if you want to see what the big guys are seeing, you need to look at Clipper. Because everything else is just a shiny new toy.
Maps
ClipperData’s best-in-class cargo map tracks real-time vessel movements across the globe.
Users can view a vessel’s status, type and class, AIS position details, and learn its likely destination and ETA. ClipperData customers can also view detailed cargo data, including hard-data breakdowns of grade and volume.
New features include real-time and historical weather patterns, zone entry and exit alerts, emission control areas, and animated voyage replays.
