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The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to Dan Graeber’s weekly commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. The indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Yellow RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- 3%) YELLOW: Elevated (+/- 2%) BLUE: Guarded (+/- 1%) THE BOOSTER […]
Tags: Brent, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, risk, Saudi, shale, Trump -
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Orange RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- 3%) YELLOW: Elevated […]
Tags: basrah, Brent, Iran, Iraq, oil, soleimani, Trump -
UAE Changes Up Its Light Sweet Suppliers
Following on from last week’s blog on Algerian crude exports and US shale, we follow the dots to look at the changing flows from these two sources into the United Arab Emirates. The ongoing political and economic boycott of Qatar from the likes of Saudi Arabia and US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry encouraged the […]
Tags: Algeria, condensate, Iran, Qatar condensate exports, shale, UAE oil imports, US -
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Yellow RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
Tags: Bolivia, Brent, GERM, Iran, Iraq, OPEC, trade war -
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: ORANGE RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
Tags: gas, GERM, Iran, Iraq, nord stream 2, oil, Quds, Russia, syria -
Exit From OPEC Boosts Qatari Oil Exports
Qatar’s oil and condensate exports are at a three-year high, having climbed consistently in 2019 after its December decision to leave OPEC. Doha’s decision to quit the oil cartel at the start of 2019 has meant that its oil production is no longer constrained by the OPEC+ production cut deal, and subsequently its crude and […]
Tags: china, East Asia, Iran, Iran oil exports, OPEC, Qatar, Qatar condensate exports, South Korea, taiwan -
Indian Crude Imports Hitting High for the Year
India’s crude imports so far in October are above 5 million barrels per day – their highest monthly pace so far this year and up over 30 percent versus last month. The increase is driven by oil flows from Arab countries other than Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which are normally seen as the top suppliers. […]
Tags: COSCO, IMO 2020, India, Iran, Nigeria, sanctions, sulfur, WTI -
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Red RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
Tags: Brent, GERM, Iran, Iran sanctions, sanctions, tariffs -
Iraq and Iran From a Crude Perspective
If there is one area where Iraq is taking advantage of Iran’s diminishing influence, it is in the oil market. Tehran’s influence in Iraq is multifaceted and the relationship between the two neighbors is deep and complex. In the oil market, however, things are different for these two OPEC rivals. Iraq took advantage of the […]
Tags: China oil imports, Iran, Iran exports, Iraq, Turkey, US -
Too Loud to Think in the Strait of Hormuz
While the United States and Iran continue to flex their muscles and thumb their noses at each other, it’s the United Kingdom that is getting pulled directly into the crisis. On July 4, ironically US independence day, the British Royal Marines detained VLCC Grace 1 in Gibraltar on suspicion it was carrying Iranian oil […]
Tags: china, geopolitical tension, geopolitics, India crude imports, Iran, Iran sanctions, petchem, Strait of Hormuz