Qatar’s oil and condensate exports are at a three-year high, having climbed consistently in 2019 after its December decision to leave OPEC. Doha’s decision to quit the oil cartel at the start of 2019 has meant that its oil production
Turkey has boosted its imports of crude from the likes of Russia and Kazakhstan, to make up for the loss of Iranian barrels.
The US administration has managed to dupe Saudi Arabia into increasing production to offset a perceived supply shortage from Iran, before backpedaling on their stance. In response, Saudi Arabia is slashing oil exports to the US.
The expectation of lower Iranian exports have caused a flood of OPEC crude to head to East Asia, while Urals and CPC Blend sour barrels have been pulled away from Europe and towards Asia as well. Until sanctions kick in and Iranian barrels drop off, the Asian market appears more than well-supplied.
US crude imports from Saudi Arabia have just hit a 16-month high, as tension increases between the two. Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery, among other things, mean Saudi energy flows are unlikely to be impacted by recent strained relations.
Yesterday’s appearances on NPR’s Texas Standard and CNBC Asia addressed the multi-year highs being made by Brent crude in the aftermath of the OPEC meeting. On CNBC Asia we discussed the geopolitical impact, whereas on NPR we honed in the impact on the US, and Texas.
Today’s blog digs into changing flows of OPEC crude as Iranian oil exports are dialed back. While oil flows are holding up to some regions, such as Southern Europe, exports are dropping precipitously to others, such as India and Asia in general.
Today’s blog takes a look at how Iranian crude is increasingly looking to find a home in China amid the ratcheting up of sanctions, while US crude is on the wane as concerns are stoked about US tariffs.
I was in Chicago yesterday so took the opportunity to meet Ben Lichtenstein in person and do a segment on the TD Ameritrade Network. We discussed all manner of things, as is usual – from US oil exports to China, to OPEC, to Iran, to the US dollar to US fundamentals and exports.
OPEC’s July crude exports, although lower than June, are considerably higher than the pace seen over the last year and a half. It appears that OPEC is starting a new trend of higher exports (although Iran and Venezuela could upset that apple cart) – analyst Kanan Mehra breaks down the details in our latest video feature.
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