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The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Orange RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
Tags: Belt and Road, china, Trade, Trump -
China and US tariffs lead to South East Asia trade surge
The impact of US and China tariffs has led to a shift in manufacturing from China to South East Asia – and as the trade war rages on, this movement is likely to become more pronounced. According to the US Census Bureau, US tariffs have been imposed on US$250 billion of Chinese goods by the […]
Tags: china, container shipping, containers, exports, imports, tariffs, Trade, U.S., US -
China Crude Oil Week: Sour Strength
A confluence of events has led to significant declines in sour crude supply globally so far this year. But lower supply is not the only factor that has propped up sour crude prices in recent months.
Tags: china, crude, sour -
China Crude Oil Weekly: Saudi Strength
Chinese crude oil imports in June so far are strong, typical for the start of a month. At a current pace of 10.3 million barrels per day, imports picked up by 2mn bpd from May’s average. We are expecting this import strength to slow in the second half of the month, just as we have […]
Tags: china, crude, imports, Saudi Arabia -
Global Oilseed Weekly: China Arrivals Signal Revisions Ahead
Global oilseed loading continues to track at a remarkably slow pace, led by slack Chinese soybean arrivals. Chinese offtake up to this point in June has totaled 3.44 million tonnes vs. 8.70 million tonnes for full month June 2018.
Tags: china, Oilseed -
China Soybean Arrivals Swing to the Upside
A sharp increase in April soybean imports into China appears to be due to seasonal stockpiling rather than any sort of stabilization in the ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic.
Tags: china, China customs data, china soybean imports, Global Grain, global oilseed exports, global oilseed loadings, grainular, Soybeans, USDA -
China: Corn Industrial Use Shines, Feeding Takes a Hit
Some insights into the most recent highlights from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) China Grain and Feed report.
Tags: agriculture, china, corn, ethanol, Global Grain, Grain, grainular, US Exports