LNG Market Analysis for September

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Global exports of liquefied natural gas in September totaled approximately 29.6 million tons on board 480 vessels, considerably higher than September 2018’s pace of 27.6 million tons. Approximately 28.6 million tons arrived on 473 vessels at import terminals in September, compared to 30.7 million tons in September 2018. China did not receive any US LNG in September 2019; only two cargoes have left US LNG export terminals this year to discharge in China.

Northeast Asia took in 15.3 million tons of LNG in September, a 7 percent decrease from September 2018.  For South Asia, the 3.3 million tons imported in September represented a 5 percent increase from year-ago levels. Ship-to-ship transfers at Honningsvag in Norway, commissioned only in November, dropped to zero as Yamal Project Arc7 class vessels have been using the Northern Sea Route for Northeast Asian destinations.

The Asia-Pacific region exported about 6.8 million tons of LNG in September, approximately 0.7 million tons lower than in August and up 6 percent year-on-year. Exports from the Middle East came in at 8.1 million tons, on par with the August pace of 8.1 million tons.

US exports in September doubled on a year-over-year basis to 3.1 million tons, approximately 0.5 million tons higher than the volume from August. The increase is attributed to the commissioning of the Freeport LNG terminal in early September. Northern Russia loaded 1.5 million tons, on par with August, but a jump from the 0.5 million tons loaded in September 2018, a result of expansions.

India imported 2.1 million tons of LNG in August, with 39 vessels arriving at different terminals across the country. Petronet procured 11 vessels and GSPC received nine LNG laden vessels. There were four for Gail and Reliance, three each for Shell Energy and IOC, two each for Essar Steel and Torrent power, and one for BPCL. In terms of suppliers, the Middle East was the largest, sending 20 cargoes, followed by West Africa with 10.

LNG export terminal utilization based upon ClipperData shipping tracking is given below:

Along with country wise LNG import terminal utilization as under:

Pakistan imported 11 cargoes of LNG in August 2019, with seven cargoes going to Pakistan State Oil and four going to Pakistan LNG. Price analysis based upon customs data of India and Pakistan is illustrated below: