One hundred and forty-nine years after the Great Mauna Loa volcano erupted in Hawaii, and oil prices are once again exploding to the upside. Here are eight things to consider as we truck on into the weekend:
1) Hot on the heels of the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, we have had the IEA’s monthly oil market report. The key takeaway is the ongoing theme of rising OPEC production, falling non-OPEC production (wax on, wax off). This year it now projects that non-OPEC output will decline by 750,000 bpd – some 150,000 bpd more than it projected last month.
This is considerably more than the EIA; the US agency sees non-OPEC production dropping by 400,000 bpd, with the US falling 600,000 bpd, but offset by rising Canadian production of 200,000 bpd.
The IEA also sees the global imbalance being Hong Kong Phooey-ed down to 200,000 bpd in the latter half of the year, from being