Crude oil rally running out of steam

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sbOne hundred and ninety-nine years after the the first commercial steamboat route from (the mighty!) Louisville to New Orleans was opened, and the crude complex appears to be running out of steam. Here are nine things to consider today:

1) We have had a mixed bag of data out overnight. Things were kicked off by a weaker-than-expected Chinese services print from Caixin, although a gradual pace of growth was still seen (51.2 vs. 52.6 consensus). Eurozone services, however, came in better than expected on the aggregate – buoyed by Germany and Italy, kept in check by France.

Brazilian GDP in Q4 dropped by 5.9% YoY. This meant GDP in 2015 shrank by 3.8%, the steepest annual decline since 1990:

Brazil Q4 GDP Brazil Q4 GDP, % YoY (source:

2) It is Nonfarm Friday Eve, meaning shenanigans await with the official US unemployment report tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims just yielded a print of 278,000 – worse than the 271,000 expected. Tomorrow’s consensus estimate of