Crude holding around $40

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Crude is rebounding today ahead of the inventory report, pushing aside oversupply fears for now. Hark, here are five things to consider in energy markets today:

1) There’s quite a war of rhetoric raging at the moment betwixt bulls and bears as to whether the current price drop below $40 is going to continue. In the bear corner we have the compounding bearish influence of high global crude ddstocks combined with high product inventories, in addition to lesser disruptions. While in the bull corner, we have expectations that non-OPEC production is going to continue to drop, bringing the market into balance.

While it is a compelling argument that fundamentals will tighten next year, given the ongoing lack of investment in the oil patch across the globe, and the dearth of projects coming online as we shuffle into 2018, what is less persuasive is that we will experience a significant rebound as we exit summer.

The gruesome twosome of lower product demand and refinery maintenance look set to keep a lid on crude prices in the near-term. All the while we have U.S. dollar gyrations in the background, leaving bulls and bears more like a push-me-pull-you.

2) Two examples of the current bull-bear pull are being played out in regard to Libya and Nigeria. While Libyan production has been mired at