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The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Red RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
Tags: aramco, geopolitical tension, geopolitics, GERM, houthi, Trump -
Brazilian Crude Extends Its Global Reach Ahead of IMO 2020
A particular grade of heavy-sweet crude oil produced by Brazil is in high demand thanks to the International Maritime Organization’s upcoming sulfur cap. The new regulation goes into effect on January 1 and will limit the permissible sulfur content of marine fuels to 0.5 percent, down from its current level of 3.5 percent. As a […]
Tags: bolsonaro, brazil, IMO, ostra, sulfur -
ClipperClip: Iranian Woes and Chinese Flows
I was out on CNBC Asia last night discussing the latest developments relating to Iran, crude flows into China, and the likely ongoing over-compliance of Saudi Arabia in terms of OPEC production cuts. The chart below highlights what I was discussing in the interview – how US flows are heading elsewhere in Asia as US […]
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The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Orange RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- […]
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Iraq and Iran From a Crude Perspective
If there is one area where Iraq is taking advantage of Iran’s diminishing influence, it is in the oil market. Tehran’s influence in Iraq is multifaceted and the relationship between the two neighbors is deep and complex. In the oil market, however, things are different for these two OPEC rivals. Iraq took advantage of the […]
Tags: China oil imports, Iran, Iran exports, Iraq, Turkey, US -
LNG Market Analysis for July
Global exports of liquefied natural gas in July totaled approximately 30.7 million tons on board 507 vessels, considerably higher than July 2018’s pace of 26.7 million tons. Approximately 30.5 million tons arrived on 514 vessels at import terminals in July, compared to 26.5 million tons in July 2018. China has only received two cargoes from […]
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American Port Deliveries Move North
West Coast Canadian ports are winning market share of US cargo to and from Asia – driven by congestion and longer dwell times in southern Californian ports, as well as the competitive costs of Canadian terminals and their intermodal operators. Growth at Vancouver and Prince Rupert ports within US imports and exports from Asia is […]
Tags: Asia, cargo, North America, port, railroads, teu, Trade -
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report
The Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring Report Welcome to The GERM Report by Dan Graeber, a commentary on the intersection between geopolitical events and the price of oil. GERM stands for Geopolitical Energy and Risk Monitoring. Our indicator is based on the expected price volatility by the end of the current trading week. Risk level: Yellow […]
Tags: china, Trade, trade war, Trump