The mighty Abudi Zein and myself are back on the road next week for our semi-annual tour, providing a six-month proprietary outlook on oil and product markets. To give you a flavor of some of the topics we will be covering, hark, check out a couple of the charts below.
One area we will delve into is U.S. crude exports, and how their upward trend is impacting the marginal barrel on a global basis.
The chart below shows the percentage of U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports that are finding their way to lightering zones in the U.S. Gulf, to be transferred to a larger vessel and predominantly sent off to Asia. We’re settling into a range around 40 percent:
Another theme that we will be digging into is U.S. Gulf imports amid rising domestic production. We have seen a number of changing dynamics of late; one is a pick up in deliveries of Canadian crude – from both the east and west coasts of our friends in the north:
Another angle we will be looking at is rising demand in Asia. The chart below shows the ramp up in flows into Asia over the last few years (hark, up nearly 4 million bpd last month versus the 2016 average).
While U.S. crude exports into Asia have risen strongly in the last year, flows from the Arab Gulf have far outpaced them, despite the OPEC production cut deal. Higher U.S. flows also appear to have halted a rise in volumes from the North Sea.
ClipperView events will be in Houston, New York, London and Singapore, starting next week. The event is free, you can register here – please come along for a drink, a bite to eat, and a lively debate!